Hold on to your hats

Watching sports on television I am always amazed how much commentators talk, and how much they overread every trend.

The same holds true for politics. "Harper will be here for the next several years, having won the budget vote". And for the economy, every blip up or down is overread.

My own sense is that the key to understanding politics at the moment is the economic news. When I was in the States in December I was struck by how truly grim things seemed - the malls were empty and everything was for sale. Talking with some friends who seem to know about what is happening on the world scene and at home, their consistent message has been that the impact of the crisis in the financial and credit systems is drastic, and that this crisis is still playing itself out.

Companies and individuals have all been buying time, trying to wait it out, extending things as long as possible. That is still happening, and in the case of the Detroit Three governments are helping that to happen.

A lot of shoes have yet to drop, which means the real economic news is yet to come.

Which also means there are no sure things in politics. Harper continues to talk as if he has a majority, and it is duly reported by the media "we won't change our plans" was the flat declaration on Friday.

Well we'll see. Harper doesn't have a majority, and he doesn't control events. Hold on to your hats.