The security and economic implications of climate change

By Bryon Wilfert

First published in Global Currents, Winter 2009. Download a .pdf version of the newsletter here.

We live in an era that can no longer ignore the climate change crisis. Traditionally, security and economic interests have dominated Canada's foreign policy, but the potential impact of climate change on states is proving to be enormous and should be calculated into Canada's foreign policy equation.

Last year, the United Nations (UN) estimated that all but one of its emergency appeals for humanitarian aid in 2007 was climate related. The effects of climate change such as famines, rising sea levels, the reduction of arable land, shortages of fresh water have and will continue to displace millions. According to the UN, millions of "environmental" migrants could appear by 2020. Europe, for example, will expect a substantial increase in migratory pressure.

The waterways and international trade routes that have opened up as a result of rapidly melting ice caps raise serious concerns about the geo-strategic dynamics of the region, with potential consequences for international stability and security interests.

Climate-related events threaten to overburden governments, especially those already fragile. As resources become scarcer in some regions, the potential for conflict between competing communities and governments could increase. With a potential rise of environmentally induced conflicts, and the associated security risks, what role should the UN, regional actors and national governments play in managing these issues?

As a start, the relevant organizations and programs under the UN should be better coordinated and significantly enhanced in the interests of prevention. This could be done by upgrading the UN Environment Program, strengthening UN development capabilities and finally developing the role and task of the UN Security Council to tackle climate change.

Governments should strive harder to cooperate with each other and work towards developing international agreements that address the security risks related to climate change. The solution must be political with an international commitment.

The need for an international climate change strategy was reaffirmed during my recent visit to London, where I had the opportunity to participate on a joint dialogue between GLOBE and the Club of Rome to frame the challenges of climate change, energy and ecosystems in the context of the economic crisis. It was clear from all the experts and parliamentarians that there is a sense of urgency for an International strategy that reconciles national economies while protecting our environment.

President Barack Obama has announced his intention to introduce a ‘green recovery plan' which is a great step and Canada's government must also put forth a climate change strategy that will be in line with our economic and security interests.

This year is a critical one with the scheduled conclusion of the United Nations negotiations on climate change in Copenhagen and we have the opportunity to be a leader and change our foreign policies to meet the current global demands.

Climate change, national security and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges that is shifting Canada's foreign policy and must be on the agenda of all countries as we move forward to tackle these global challenges.

Honourable Bryon Wilfert, Member of Parliament of Richmond Hill is currently the Vice-Chair of the Standing Committee of National Defence and is the Vice-President of GLOBE Canada